jotting down thoughts

I am getting back into blogging after 4 years. My motivation have been fellow bloggers whom i have been following religiously in past 1 year and posts on social media about how writing down your thoughts help you attain better clarity on the same. The thoughts i present would be very random and vague and even am trying to find a certain direction to them so i caution the reader not to expect to gain something from this.

I have been reading "the black Swan" by Taleb and i was awakened to the fact that history writers have the advantage of narrating things as they turned out to be and not as they were going around when they were actually happening. The narration is easier as you have both the starting and ending points of a scenario. However, a current account like a diary is a better source of factual information.

Then I have my latest found passion on investments. Again this is a random thought and i do not know how to go about it but i would bring to your notice that my ultra HNI people are making even more money by taking the risk of investing into startups. I had this idea if a crowd fund could be established which could take somewhere around Rs. 1000/- as a minimum investment and invest into these startups as professionals do people in general would be rewarded and risk appetite would be low as well. However, am unaware of the government regulations to start such a fund and also the reality if something like this can happen. 

Going around on the investment theme, I have a thought that P/E ratio for nifty has been on the higher side and I have a feeling it will fall of the cliff anytime soon. However, i have therefore started investing my savings more into liquid funds but still continue to put my regular investments into SIPs which are all equity facing. There are thousands of sites which can tell you about investing. Hundreds if you want to learn more on DIY way. 

My impressions on the subject comes basically from books and to list them down :

1. The Big Short By Michael lewis (Consider it my best read : It brought me into this world)
2. The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai
3. The unusual Billionaires by Saurabh Mukherjea
4. Coffee Can Investing by Saurabh Mukherjea
5. The little book that beats the market (One of those must reads)
6. One up on Wall Street 

 This is just a start and i hope to continue to blog in coming days to again post such confusing and contradicting thoughts i encounter.  

The CONGRESS's Way Ahead

Its going to be a time when everyone will be writing and thinking about ways in which India got MODIFIED but there will the grand old party of India which needs to go into a phase where it can rethink its way of governance its choice of allies its leadership. At a time of praises for Mr. Modi there should be also a introspection by congress where everyone should take a collective responsibility for the huge debacle that these elections have been for them. I think its high time for congress to make amends give way to an approach that combines the face value of Gandhi Family and what people want. Its time the First family of Indian Politics got back into the business of creating goodwill for themselves goodwill which until now has helped them form governments for the larger part of 60 years in India. The goodwill of the Nehru-Gandhi Family has been eroded by remaining on sidelines for long. They have failed to create the humble Nehru nor the dominating Indira image nor even close to Rajiv. These images are what got Modi elected except from the fact that he performed.
The mistakes were not being directly involved in the government functioning being close with allies who hurt them more than they benefit. Its time for congress to consolidate they can go about by first ensuring their state governments start working and the Parties central command chooses strategists to go their and make people start respecting the organization Karnataka, Kerala, Haryana are some states left with them. They should start working at every level from panchayats to those few MPs they have to ensure they atleast maintain a tally. They have scores of intellectuals who will now be out of work they should be each assigned a state to build the organization ground up. They have the capability but do they have the courage to go back to among the masses, to build again for themselves. For that they really need to perform in whatever and whichever states they are left with. They also need to come up with people who are willing to go into the dirt and build the party up in states like MP , Rajasthan, Delhi, UP and Bihar atleast. A state that may be willing and has been long lost to Congress like TN presents an opportunity with DMK being routed out completely and no strong opposition to AIADMK and West bengal which are states where BJP has not been able to ride on the wave. The Congress gentlemen may stick to their values and go back and work for the society like Mahatma has asked everyone to do after the non-cooperation movement and its time to involve some aspiring chief ministers and project them. If the Gandhi family still wants to lead the country they have to lead from the front they have to ensure they are the leaders and cant only be their at good times but also to take responsibilities.

The Congress does need to introspect its clear they are no more the organization to be associated with. They need to start working from the states they hold and again become the blue-eyed boy. They dont only need a Gandhi to lead from the front but also to take up responsibility. The other dynastic families whose destinies are associated with the Gandhi's like the Schindhia's, Pilot's , Chidambaram, etc are old families they still can if all come together protect the congress from the dreadful fate in near future they need to strengthen their organization and ensure their cadres of their presence and their will to fight and rebuild their organization. The Congress High-command needs to atleast be a good HR manager allocation states to people who can assure them of substantial work in the society and coming back into power even if it is in small states because they have 5 years to look at it and better use it so that they are atleast able to eat into JAYA , mamata, Naveen or Jagans vote share if not directly into the BJPs strongholds. They need to go by their organizational strengths of PCCs and make empower them first to look at ground realities and not centralize the decisions. Their stalwarts now need to build the party up from scratch again congress if it wants a future cant rely on BJPs futures mistakes it has to take opportunities wherever they present themselves.

  

Election Times

Its the time when worlds largest democracy is going to execute its democratic right to form a government by periodic elections after 5 years. The General Elections in India are going to be exciting to say the least. The chai  wallah vs Jhadu Walla vs shehzada vs the plethora of regional parties who are eyeing the great seat of power in Delhi or just aspiring to be a part of the alliance which comes to power. The issues that are being raised are corruption, communalism ,state of governance, etc. These issues are issues raised mainly by these parties who then nurture it by educating us through various sources of media and then requesting the vote for these issues that they raised they want solved and you vote for them to help them solve these issues by themselves. Its the battle between the Grand-old Party of the country with the one thats associated to a religion practised by largest population and the one thats also making headways is the new party which calls for end to corruption and sings the song of self-righteousness. Yes am not a big fan of Arvind Kejriwal. 

But all this apart the basic issues in a nation of 135 billion strong people are many. Many places still dont have basic amenities. The sanitation problem which if can be checked may save millions of those poor who spent hard earned money and a major part of their income on healthcare. They dont have fancy healthcards which covers their medical expenditure. No one comes out and says I will built toilets so that your families dont fall ill your young children are healthy and attend schools. This is what the poor people most need security from issues like these. Equal opportunities like sanitation. Taking educated doctors to every nook and corner of a vast country like ours is no easy task and providing sanitation might just help us to rescue these people to a secure and healthy life. It does not solve the problem but a dedicated year towards it will solve it will make our rivers cleaner will make air free of a few parasites and prevent spending on medicines we cant afford. 

The big leaders are not talking about this. The inflation and its adverse impacts are talked about but the terrorism and our foreign relations are not. We now have a Globalized economy where world issues affect our economy and thus every section of the population. The emerging superpower in our neighbourhood also our biggest competitor in global trade the mighty CHINA has with complete knowledge of India built a String of pearls around us. We are coming up with new schemes to promote export but the way in which china is working its intimidating and us and has surrounded us almost from all sides. We on the contrary are losing out our all time supporters like Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka whose strategic position we could have used instead is being used by china. This is not going to help our businesses either. The end of ethnic war has brought back the fishing industry of north Sri Lanka back to life and they are now fighting with indian fisherman for their share. These issues if not solved have the potential to effect the peace from south and as we know chinas presence in that region is going worsen things. We have threat of terrorism in northern and eastern areas. These people in Sri Lanka are desperate and may be misguided like a lot of people in the Kashmir and north eastern areas. Bangladesh the country sharing the largest land border with India is also not in a strong political problem. We should not only be concerned about peace and harmony in these areas but must also take actions that will solve problems because the situation in these nearby areas directly impact the life of Citizens in India. We have grown in economy but we must also protect this growth by maintaining peace and favourable conditions for Indians in neighbouring countries because we have seen it is this kind of neglect that leads to fall of great a many nations. 

India's non involvement in internal matters of neighbours although looks nice in world perspective but that wont help in long term. To grow as a superpower we need to start acting like one. China has built its string of pearls but its not late for India to take proactive measures and built a strong relation with countries in South China Sea conflict and not only through visits and discussions but also take up economic activity. Economic assets in these areas will become our forts from where we can also protect our interests overseas.

I would just like the big small leaders to also concentrate on these foreign issues and not leave them for reactionary measures. These are issues that affect people during the course of those five years in one way or the other.The TV channels which have debates about "he said she said" should start raising these issues . 

The basic right to life which is not available to many.

The case of healthcare services in our country. I think all the good doctors who would love to service our poor people selflessly but have to think of their families and providing them better services and hence opt to practising privately. I had heard that the middle classes of western developed economies wanted to travel to India to be operated upon on lower costs. I think the best thing our economy can do is provide healthcare services to these and many others in the neighbouring southeast asian region. I think the way their are SEZs for manufacturing and other industries I believe a similar arrangement should be created for the healthcare services whose future is neglected.

A large chunk of land like it was done in Nehruvian days to setup industrial cities like Rourkela, Bhilai, etc. should be allocated for this purpose. A township should be created with amenities around it and an airport in close proximity will help do this. We can generate income for the professionals there. This will in form of boosting our income also create a world class healthcare service and one that's desperately needed. It will also benefit our own citizens who have to suffer because of this. This kind of ideas are required in backward states and should not be implemented on the plains of Punjab Haryana or places that have high fertility and should not waste huge chunks of land which should be employed to boost the agricultural produce to create real assets. If these townships which can compete with suburbs like Gurgaon, Noida can be setup in parts like Eastern UP , Western Odisha and other such neglected areas they may usher in the much needed change in these areas.

the other way back....

An economic instability which might lead us to the greatest depressions of all. We the Indians were aware of famines floods and other natural calamities but these series of economic recession are new to us. If we go back historically we were an agrarian economy during the colonial rule our we can say that agriculture was our main economic activity till liberation of our economy. 

We Indians have from then tried to improve upon through various changes in the basic structure of our economy by focussing on manufacturing and services sector. I think what our economy really needs right now is a boost from the bottom of the pyramid. We should do what we did best for the first 30 years of being and independent nation. We should research bring upon more revolutions like the green and white which took place then. Fill our granaries with the stock of food and hence lower these ever rising prices.

I think we need a phase where we should go back to were we come from to our roots. The NREGA or other schemes may provide employment but what they cant do is increase the productivity. We are from the pre-colonial times one of the best reapers of land we should as they say go back to the basics.

Food security once established needs to be constantly looked after if we can organize our farming sector we would reap higher gains than wasting money on travelling abroad to get FDI. We Indians are known for being the people who save if we save by eating food at lower cost which grows in our backyard it will keep the money from draining out of the country. Its back to swadeshi we need to grow our own food at the bare minimum. The world economy respects those who can atleast feed themselves.

Let the rupee touch new heights but if we can do this, than on a very personal note, maybe a false economic principle we can bring it back to where it belongs to i.e. in our pockets not flying away at every place we stop. The basics of economics is from what I understand supply-demand. If we have food the demand that leads to other demands will supplied upon and hence leaving us with pocket change to save which we being a country of a billion people actually could make a difference. Our demographic dividend needs to be optimally used a part of our large healthy workforce could just help us feed the rest and hence make us food secure. We dont need a food security bill we just need ourselves to find a way to secure our food. 

jst gettin back ... some things i learned in the time being

Its been a long time since i wrote my last blog ....... what has not changed is me :-P
anyways change and all are good ...... petrol prices have changed so to say went up by a mile......
and everywhere in india we find people who are actually blaming it all at the government .
the main reason being the high taxation on petrol. yes its high but we need to take into account the high amonut of debt the govt. owes to the rest of the world. If it werent for a growing GDP we would also be declared bankrupt . If we dont start to understand the consequences of what could happen if we dont realise the full potential of these rising fuel prices.

Lets just discuss from the very basic ... by now everyone knows that the actual price of extracting gasoline from crude oil is well below the retail price at which it is sold thanks to various posts and comparisons of petrol prices around the world given on FB and all over the place. But as someone whose justification i really trust once explained me that  the government puts its around 50% taxes on petrol and as i too thought its outrageous but then there is a whole lot of economics behind it  the petrol we produce from crude oil is generally imported into our country so we have to pay it with our foreign currency reserve that we obtain from our exports so it cripples our government at times when there's a flood or drought when we need to import grains because of the lack of foreign exchange. Thats a part i think everyone with a bit of sense will understand easily but then comes the question as to why do u need more that whats required to process the crude oil as the price i.e. why so high taxes on a product we use in our daily life.

To admit to all of you i just thought everyone in the country was an idiot because they thought that the government never did anything for the common people but after all people when you can afford the luxury of a vehicle cant you just afford the costs that go with it after all we dont have crude oil reserves in our country we gotta import the stuff but anyways i recently discovered a very different aspect as to why the taxes are high. Dude when u ride a motorbike or a car you can afford a luxury not everyone in our country has this kinda luxury so high taxes go into government's account and not into some particular persons so this comes back to us in form of government spending on infrastructure development including funds for education , road building , etc etc. So people i believe petrol is the safest way to pay to the government because in India we dont have a big organised retail and we dont have the accountability for the small time kirana stores so we lose a lot of taxes there .

If any of you disagree to whatever i said about the tax collection please give some thought on a one time great greece and how it became bankrupt from being the nation that started democracy and a developed nation at that. Its is the story of a nation where the prime job of people is to evade taxes not by finding the loopholes in the constitutional framework but by bribing officials. I dont see the kind of bribing myself but a lot of pessimist in and arnd me think of India as country running only on black money but anyways where i find a flaw in our taxation policy is the unorganized retail where we may be losing a heavy sum of our taxes. Now all this is what i wanted anyone reading this to think upon the next time you try and tell the government isnt doing anything for us. Am not a deadly congress supporter but agree with Dr. Manmohan singh that we as a nation should never forget the amount of debt we owe to the world i.e. around rs.1 crore 83 lakh crore !!!!!!!!!! . If we dont levy taxes on luxury goods it wont be a viable option because it will lead us to the brink of bankruptcy from where on we wont find a way back like we did in 1991. High taxes on goods like petrol allow us to use the new technology and services for free .

The money collected as taxes is after all given back into development and common people the efficient use of these resources is after all impossible there will be corruption but since liberalization our five year plans have gained momentum enough to cover atleast 75% of the proposed plans . Giving us a better communication network . Should i also bring to your notice we offer one of the cheapest internet services in the world and those white idiots used to call us third world!!!!!  So i think that should answer everyone who thinks the taxation on petrol is idiotic and stupid because people its not a good required for continuing life its not a life saving drug its just petrol people . See whats happening to USA a nation addicted to cheap crude oil and low taxation on it that they are ready to wage wars on oil rich country and increase there budget deficit to $14 trillion when it hardly has the money to support education in its own land the fact that was admired by the whole world , The american dream of education to all , is falling bit by bit . Dont grow into a country that is so overwhelmed by its power or progress that it wants to keep everything as it was when they were a superpower. Let the government reduce debt on us and we can become a fundamentally strong economy and not just one that is alive until the day foreign money is flowing into it .

Politics

Hii Guys
Am back with some political stuff again , although its gonna be something in a unique way.
Its nothing like politics has got something new its me who will make the stuff interesting by presenting the same news thats been everywhere with a bit different touch.

The lack of power leads a man in politics to go through anything to gain it.
Consider the case of the Thackeray family, they are a household name in politics and its there 2nd generation that is governing the scenario nowadays , its no more Balasaheb who is powerful but his son is now doing all the work. The slogan of shivsena given to it by its great leader Balasaheb of 'Marathi Manus' is no more the inspiration for his partymen, its to damage anyone who is not a 'Marathi' or what can a non marathi taxi driver do for him that a marathi driver will do. They dont even bother who he is because they are trying hard to earn living for their family, a days meal is what they think not that the fellow taxi driver is a marathi or bihari. The Thackeray's have a point that the people who have migrated from other places of the country are taking the jobs away but its but it is only because the people there are not willing or not capable of handling those jobs.

This politics if continued may develop a hatred among the people which may result in serious trobules for a prospering state like maharastra.Same was the case with assam what happened there which has now lead to the Bodo movement was also similar demand and this has created people who are taking advantage of this small hatred and have armed these people to continue their interests . If the similar situation grows in mumbai there will be more people to sponser it than fight because it will adversely affect one of the most prosporous economies of the world.
This is why i beleive we have to stop the Thackeray from making people to think like this because they may be having a gentle approach towards it but there are people who want this situation to grow because they want to destroy the nation.


The similar case is with the telangana thing. Telangana demand is justified but what is mainly fuelling is the people who want the land held by people from Andhra Pradesh in Hyderabad so that they can derive huge profits from them.The same can happen to mumbai and the whole of the maharastra.